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Deutschlandprognose 2011/2012: Aufschwung kommt langsamer voran

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus


Die positive konjunkturelle Grundtendenz in Deutschland wird derzeit getragen von sehr günstigen Finanzierungsbedingungen, steigender Beschäftigung und robuster Auslandsnachfrage. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2011 dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt um 3,3 % steigen, bei einem 67-%-Unsicherheitsintervall von 2,7% bis 3,9%. Im kommenden Jahr dürfte die Konjunktur klar aufwärts gerichtet bleiben. Zwar ist zu erwarten, dass die EUROPÄISCHE ZENTRALBANK die Leitzinsen bis dahin leicht angehoben hat und die Weltwirtschaft – gewichtet mit den deutschen Exportanteilen – geringfügig an Fahrt verlieren wird, weshalb sich die Inves - ti tionsdynamik etwas normalisieren dürfte. Dafür dürften die privaten Konsumausgaben, befördert durch steigende Löhne und die zunehmende Arbeitsplatzsicherheit, allmählich an Fahrt gewinnen. Ins gesamt wird das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2012 voraussichtlich um 2,3 % expandieren.

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Article provided by Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): 18 (2011)
Issue (Month): 04 (08)
Pages: 3-11

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:18:y:2011:i:04:p:3-11
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