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Gesamtwirtschaftliche Perspektiven fuer Deutschland

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus


Nach dem "Herbstgutachten" der fuehrenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute dominieren bis zum Jahresende die Effekte des Oelpreisschocks, welche vor allem die Binnennachfrage daempfen. Der Export wird noch von der Abwertung des Euro profitieren. Die retardierenden Effekte des Oelpreisanstiegs werden zwar im Laufe des Jahres 2001 nachlassen, dann kommen aber die Beschleunigung der Weltkonjunktur sowie die straffere Geldpolitik mehr zum Tragen. Ueberlagert wird dies von kraeftigen Inpulsen der Finanzpolitik, die in der ersten Jahreshaelfte 2001 sogar zu einer voruebergehenden Beschlaeunigung der konjunkturellen Expansion fuehrt. Der Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts wird sich 2001 auf 2,7% verringern, nach 3,0% im Jahr 2000. Bei geringfuegig steigenden Lohnstueckkosten wird die Inflationsrate im Laufe des kommenden Jahres wieder deutlich unter 2% sinken.

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Article provided by Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): 07 (2000)
Issue (Month): 06 (October)
Pages: 6-11

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:07:y:2000:i:06:p:6-11
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