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Can the shadow economy undermine the effect of political stability on inflation? Empirical evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Ummad Mazhar

    (Lahore University of Management Sciences)

  • Juvaria Jafri

    (City, University of London)

Abstract

This paper revisits the empirical relationship between political stability and inflation while explicitly accounting for the presence of the shadow economy. Using a large data set of 122 countries over the 1999 to 2007 period, we find that the well established negative correlation between political stability and inflation holds only if the size of the shadow economy remains modest; and it ceases to exist at higher levels of the size of the informal sector. This finding contributes to the existing literature on public finance that assigns special importance to political determinants of inflation. The results are robust against alternative specifications and satisfy the usual assumptions of a valid statistical inference.

Suggested Citation

  • Ummad Mazhar & Juvaria Jafri, 2017. "Can the shadow economy undermine the effect of political stability on inflation? Empirical evidence," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 20, pages 395-420, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:20:y:2017:n:2:p:395-420
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    Cited by:

    1. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2022. "Do Aid for Trade Flows Help Reduce the Shadow Economy in Recipient Countries?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-33, December.
    2. Costantiello, Alberto & Leogrande, Angelo, 2023. "The Role of Political Stability in the Context of ESG Models at World Level," MPRA Paper 116887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2021. "Global convergence of inflation rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Md. Nur Alam Siddik & Sajal Kabiraj & Md. Emran Hosen & Md. Firoze Miah, 2022. "Impacts of Political Stability on Shadow Economy: Evidence from Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation Countries," Vision, , vol. 26(2), pages 221-231, June.
    5. Ibrahim Ngouhouo & Loudi Njoya & Simplice A. Asongu, 2022. "Corruption, Economic Growth and the Informal Sector: Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 22/014, African Governance and Development Institute..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    political stability; informal sector or shadow economy; inflation; openness; tax revenue.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H27 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Other Sources of Revenue

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