Inégalités face à la mort et au risque de dépendance

We use data from the SHARE survey to estimate the relationship between socioeconomic status, mortality and risk of dependence among Europeans aged 50+. We confirm that the subjective probabilities of survival as reported in the survey are good predictors of the probability of actual survival. We then estimate the effect of wealth on this subjective probability. The results show that the wealthiest individuals have a higher probability of survival regardless of the estimation method used (OLS or 2SLS). The strength of this relationship differs between countries and we observe that in the most bismarckian countries, wealth explains survival more than in beveridgian countries. Finally, we also show that the poorest individuals are those who are more likely to become dependent but also those with longer period of dependence. Our results identify thus a triple penalty related to socioeconomic status, summed up by the finding that the poorest individuals live shorter lives, are more likely to become dependent and for a longer period.