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Le rôle des stocks en sortie de crise : Une étude empirique sur données d'enquête


  • Frédérique Bec
  • Mélika Ben Salem
  • Marie Bessec


This paper explores the existence of a bounce-back effect in inventory investment using the European Community opinion survey on stocks of finished products in manufacturing. A threshold autoregression allowing for a transitory strong recovery phasis is estimated for French, German and European aggregate data from 1985q1 to 2011q4. The results support the existence of a high recovery episode for inventory investment during the quarters immediately following the recessions. This could in turn explain the real GDP growth rate bounce-back pointed out in previous empirical studies.

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  • Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Marie Bessec, 2012. "Le rôle des stocks en sortie de crise : Une étude empirique sur données d'enquête," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 122(6), pages 811-822.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_226_0811

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes


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