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Les politiques budgétaires sont-elles contra-cycliques dans la zone euro ?

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  • Florence Huart

Abstract

We study the relationship between the change in the cyclically-adjusted primary balance and the change in the output gap. The former variable is taken as an indicator of discretionary fiscal policy. The latter is an indicator of cyclical conditions. We use panel data for the euro area and data for twelve euro area countries (and three EU countries and three OECD countries for comparison). The sample covers the period 1970-2008. We show that fiscal policy was countercyclical in all euro area member countries in 2009. However, over the period 1970-2008, countercyclicality was little frequent in those countries to compare with other OECD countries. Moreover, since 1999, fiscal policies in the euro area have no longer been procyclical during good times, but they have been procyclical during bad times in two countries, Austria and Portugal. JEL Classification codes: E62.

Suggested Citation

  • Florence Huart, 2011. "Les politiques budgétaires sont-elles contra-cycliques dans la zone euro ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 149-172.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_116_0149
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Bance, 2012. "Budgetary Policies in the Crisis: Crash, Rescue, Boomerang: A Trap for Public Intervention?," Post-Print hal-01965379, HAL.
    2. Sèwanoudé Honoré HOUNGBEDJI, 2021. "Budget policy, economic cycle and debt in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries: Empirical evidence based on a regime change model," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(629), W), pages 151-168, Winter.
    3. Thiombiano, Noel & Ouedraogo, Salifou & Moussa, Abiboulaye, 2022. "Fiscal policy rules and economic fluctuations in the countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 252-263.
    4. Aurel IANCU & Dan Constantin OLTEANU, 2022. "Procyclical and Countercyclical Fiscal Policies in Non-Euro EU Member Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 188-205, October.
    5. Amélie BARBIER-GAUCHARD & Nicolas MAZUY, 2018. "Country-specific fiscal reaction functions: what lessons for EMU ?," Working Papers of BETA 2018-28, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    6. Philippe Bance, 2012. "Les politiques budgétaires dans la crise : krach, sauvetage, boomerang… trappe à intervention publique ?," Post-Print hal-01965422, HAL.
    7. Itchoko motande Mondjeli mwa ndjokou, 2017. "Institutions and pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy in Sub Saharan Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 1365-1380.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy; countercyclical fiscal stance; Discretion; Stability and Growth Pact;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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