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Les déterminants de la synchronisation cyclique Tunisie-zone euro

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  • Fathi Elachhab

Abstract

This article attempts to determine the causes of business cycle synchronisation / desynchronisation between Tunisia and its main European partners: Germany, France and Italy. By following the changes through time of factors of business cycle comouvement, traited by empirical literature, together with that of bilatéral correlations, we specified the potential factors of tunisian cyclical synchronisation/ desynchronisation. Using a long-term cointegration equation, we analyzed the weights of trade intensity, industrial structure and market structure on changes over time of bilateral correlations. The results show that (i) the synchronisation between Tunisia and France is linked to bilateral trade intensity and economic policies similarity, (ii) the decline of bilateral trade and dissimilarity of supply structures explain the desynchronisation with Germany, (iii) with Italy, dissimilarities of industrial structures and difference structure in labor and products market are the main origin of the desynchronization. JEL Classification: E32, C21, F42.

Suggested Citation

  • Fathi Elachhab, 2010. "Les déterminants de la synchronisation cyclique Tunisie-zone euro," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 33-62.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_115_0033
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mehdi Bhoury & Mohamed Slim Mouha, 2015. "Characteristics of the Tunisian Business Cycle and its International Synchronization," IHEID Working Papers 16-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cyclical synchronization; economic integration; cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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