Les déterminants de la synchronisation cyclique Tunisie-zone euro
This article attempts to determine the causes of business cycle synchronisation / desynchronisation between Tunisia and its main European partners: Germany, France and Italy. By following the changes through time of factors of business cycle comouvement, traited by empirical literature, together with that of bilatéral correlations, we specified the potential factors of tunisian cyclical synchronisation/ desynchronisation. Using a long-term cointegration equation, we analyzed the weights of trade intensity, industrial structure and market structure on changes over time of bilateral correlations. The results show that (i) the synchronisation between Tunisia and France is linked to bilateral trade intensity and economic policies similarity, (ii) the decline of bilateral trade and dissimilarity of supply structures explain the desynchronisation with Germany, (iii) with Italy, dissimilarities of industrial structures and difference structure in labor and products market are the main origin of the desynchronization. JEL Classification: E32, C21, F42.
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