IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cai/reofsp/reof_101_0227.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nairu en zone heureuse

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Daniel Guigou

Abstract

The aim of this special study consists in estimating the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) for the aggregated euro area, France, Italy and Germany. An equation, estimated with the Kalman filter, relates the inflation variation with the terms of trade and the gap between the unemployment and the Nairu. The basic model, where the Nairu is specified as a random walk, shows bad forecasting properties. With this model, the forecasted unemployment rate would become lower than the Nairu before 2008. Another model relates the Nairu with the unemployment rate. This relation is significant for all countries and is interpreted as a hysteresis effect. Moreover, this model forecasts lower values of the Nairu and, for this reason, we do not expect inflation tensions. JEL codes: C13, C32, E24, E31.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Daniel Guigou, 2007. "Nairu en zone heureuse," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 101(2), pages 227-234.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_101_0227
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=REOF_101_0227
    Download Restriction: free

    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce-2007-2-page-227.htm
    Download Restriction: free
    ---><---

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_101_0227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.