Délocalisations et concurrence des pays émergents : mesurer l'effet sur l'emploi en France

From 1980 to 2002, French industry lost 1,450,000 jobs. The growth of imports from emerging countries suggests that trade with them might be the culprit. First, however, one must correct the raw employment loss number from the effect of the rise of temporary work and domestic outsourcing: thus corrected, the industrial job loss is reduced to 1,095,000. Offshore relocations to emerging countries are not well measured. They have entailed only 45,000 job losses between 1995 and 2001. Second, the paper reviews the evaluations of job losses linked to trade with emerging countries in general. Three methods have been used: the job content of trade, econometric studies and macro-economic models. None is fully satisfying. They indicate that there would be between 150,000 and 300,000 additional industrial jobs in France but for the rise of trade with emerging countries.