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Projeter le nombre futur de dépendants : une approche multifactorielle avec un modèle Probit

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  • Kevin Genna

Abstract

In recent years, France has experienced a major demographic shock as the baby-boom generation has entered old age. This ageing of the population brings with it new challenges, including the loss of autonomy. In this article, we propose a new approach for estimating the progression of dependency based on the estimation of a Probit model using Share survey data. We then use these results to project the number of dependents in France in 2030. Our results show that there will be nearly 3 million dependents in France at that time. The key feature of our approach is that it makes it possible to ascertain the future profile of dependents with a high degree of accuracy. We demonstrate that 50% of future dependents will have incomes of less than ?25,000 a year, preventing them from choosing an EHPAD-type facility, whose average annual cost is estimated at ?26,000, unless they are helped out. JEL classification: C35, I18, J14.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Genna, 2023. "Projeter le nombre futur de dépendants : une approche multifactorielle avec un modèle Probit," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(4), pages 27-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:refaef:ecofi_152_0027
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    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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