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La crise : quelles conséquences durables sur la croissance, l'emploi et les finances publiques ?

Author

Listed:
  • Étienne Debauche
  • Éric Dubois
  • Pierre Leblanc

Abstract

A review of the past financial crises suggests that the 2008-2009 crisis could lead to a durable loss of activity. In the main scenario, the French economy might suffer a permanent loss of 7 points of GDP compared to the pre-crisis trend. The weakness of productivity is one of the mechanisms that could account for this permanent loss. This loss of productivity is related to the unexpectedly good performance of the French labour market during the crisis, regarding the loss of activity. The crisis has also accelerated the old tendency of debt increase the French economy has been facing for 30 years. At this point, the debt level becomes problematic. Classification JEL: E32, E37, G01, O47.

Suggested Citation

  • Étienne Debauche & Éric Dubois & Pierre Leblanc, 2011. "La crise : quelles conséquences durables sur la croissance, l'emploi et les finances publiques ?," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(3), pages 41-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:refaef:ecofi_103_0041
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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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