La pratique des indications prospectives des banques centrales dans le contexte de la borne du zéro sur les taux d’intérêt

This article proposes an alternative method to assess the usefulness of central banks? forward guidance since the start of the global financial crisis and the occurrence of the zero lower bound. Using the Wordscores methodology, I provide a quantitative analysis of the size of the expansionary monetary impulses, as expressed through the forward guidance of three central banks: the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The findings reveal that since 2009, central banks? communication delivers important insights to financial market participants on the persistence of their (un)conventional monetary measures, and in particular, on the future occurrence of an exit strategy through the so-called odyssean forward guidance.