Identification des vulnérabilités à la transition induites par la demande : application d’une approche systémique à l’Afrique du Sud

When trying to assess the economic consequences of a transition to a low carbon economy, it might seem reasonable to concentrate on the sectors using carbon-intensive technologies and thus emitting important amounts of greenhouse gases. We however show in this study that non-emitting sectors might nonetheless be vulnerable to the transition. To do so, we develop a simple methodology anchored in national and financial accounting that combines input-output tables with sectorial financial data in order to systematically assess the exposure and financial sensitivity of all sectors to unitary transition shocks in the case of South Africa. We highlight how the combination of the nature of the demand shock, the position in the production structure, the characteristics of the value chain and the initial financial conditions determines the amplitude of the impacts on the different sectors and on their financial balances. In the case of South Africa and for the two shocks considered (on coal mining and automotive industries), we find that raw material manufacturers, utilities, as well as financial service providers are exposed and sensitive to transition dynamics. Our results stress the importance of considering scope 3 (particularly downstream) sectors? emissions when conducting impact assessments and call for systemic analyses of the economic consequences of the ecological transition.