IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Un modèle de prix de l'immobilier pour estimer l'ampleur de la bulle américaine


  • Stéphane Sorbe


House prices in the Us have experienced a sharp rise between 2000 and 2006, followed by a historical decline (nominal prices had not decreased since World War II), which resembles the correction of a speculative bubble. To assess the existence and the magnitude of this bubble, we estimate a model of house prices with different structural determinants in rural and urban areas. In rural areas, housing supply can adjust to demand (through new constructions) and prices should reflect construction costs. In urban areas, where housing supply is constrained, prices are driven by fluctuations in housing demand. We estimate an error correcting model between 1975 and 2000 and find that house prices in the us are suitably explained by such determinants during this period, and that prices in urban and rural areas have a comparable weight in the national prices. At their peak in 2006, house prices in the Us were approximately 30% higher than suggested by this model. We consider that this overvaluation was mainly due to a relaxation of mortgage credit standards, speculative behaviour of economic agents due to excessive expectations of housing price increases and possibly a certain lack of competition in the construction industry. Classification JEL : E37, G12, R21, R37

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Sorbe, 2009. "Un modèle de prix de l'immobilier pour estimer l'ampleur de la bulle américaine," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(1), pages 173-187.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_601_0173

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: free

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: free


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Paul Pollin, 2010. "Commentaire : Articuler les explications pour comprendre la bulle immobilière," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 438(1), pages 173-179.
    2. Vincent Grossmann-Wirth & Sophie Rivaud & Stéphane Sorbe, 2010. "Comprendre la formation de la bulle immobilière américaine et son éclatement," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 438(1), pages 151-171.
    3. Clotilde Pfingstag & Vincent Grossmann-Wirth, 2010. "Ni déflation, ni spirale inflationniste aux États-Unis : l’apport d’une modélisation par secteurs de l’inflation sous-jacente," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 187-195.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_601_0173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.