IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Ralentissement démographique et chômage. Quels enseignements des modèles macroéconomiques ?

Listed author(s):
  • Jean-François Ouvrard
  • Roland Rathelot
  • Olivier Simon

The declines in fertility and mortality rates lead to important changes in demographic structures among all industrialized countries, including France. After several decades of sustained growth, the population in working ages will slowdown or even start declining. This movement is accompanied by an acceleration for the population in retirement ages. This study explores the impact of this double movement for labour market equilibrium. It first develops two stylized models describing potential impacts for the short run and the long run. It then uses the Mésange macroeconometric model for a more complete simulation. These different approaches suggest that favourable effects of the demographic slowdown are either small or temporary. In the long run, negative effects can result from the increasing pressure of age-related social expenditures, but only under the assumption that workers negotiate on net wages rather than on total labour costs. Classification JEL : J11, J20, J64.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: free

File URL:
Download Restriction: free

Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 59 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 973-993

in new window

Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_595_0973
Contact details of provider: Web page:

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_595_0973. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.