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An Examination of Prediction Market Efficiency: NBA Contracts on Tradesports


  • Richard Borghesi


In this paper I examine the absolute and relative price efficiency of NBA options listed on Tradesports. com. I find that contracts within specific price bands are misvalued, but also demonstrate that this market is more efficient than is the market for NFL options. Specifically, I show that contracts priced around $25 win (expire at $100) at a rate less than expected, while those priced around $75 win at a rate greater than expected. The magnitudes of these deviations between prices and fundamental values are less than those in the NFL market. Also, while prior theoretical work predicts that low-priced contracts should be overpriced, I instead find that NBA contracts priced near $2.50 win more frequently than expected.

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  • Richard Borghesi, 2009. "An Examination of Prediction Market Efficiency: NBA Contracts on Tradesports," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(2), pages 65-77, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:3:y:2009:i:2:p:65-77

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jana P. Fidrmuc & Marc Goergen & Luc Renneboog, 2006. "Insider Trading, News Releases, and Ownership Concentration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2931-2973, December.
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    6. Meulbroek, Lisa K, 1992. " An Empirical Analysis of Illegal Insider Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1661-1699, December.
    7. Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Point Shaving: Corruption in NCAA Basketball," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 279-283, May.
    8. Thaler, Richard H & Ziemba, William T, 1988. "Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 161-174, Spring.
    9. Les Coleman, 2007. "Just How Serious is Insider Trading? An Evaluation using Thoroughbred Wagering Markets," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 31-55, February.
    10. Camerer, Colin & Loewenstein, George & Weber, Martin, 1989. "The Curse of Knowledge in Economic Settings: An Experimental Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1232-1254, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Borghesi, 2014. "The impact of the disposition effect on asset prices: insight from the NBA," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 698-711, October.

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