Overconfidence in Judgements: the Evidence, the Implications and the Limitations
This paper examines the degree to which individuals tend to be overconfident in their judgements and identifies the implications for those trading in prediction markets. The findings from laboratory-based psychological studies of overconfidence are compared and contrasted with those from financial market studies. The broad conclusion from this literature survey is that overconfidence is a widespread phenomenon which is influenced by a number of factors, such as, the difficulty of the judgement task, the amount and nature of outcome feedback, and the gender and culture of the decision maker. It is also clear that there are a number of limitations of the existing research and a suggested methodology for further research in this area is examined.
Volume (Year): 2 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.ubpl.co.uk/|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.predictionmarketjournal.com/index_files/Page418.htm Email: |
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:2:y:2008:i:1:p:73-90. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.