Estimating Crowd: Electoral Adjustment and Spatial Effects of Turnout During Covid-19 Pandemic

While extensive scholarship has examined determinants of voter turnout, spatial dimensions of turnout – particularly during crises – remain understudied. This article investigates the rise in voter turnout during the 2020 mayoral election in Surabaya, Indonesia, one of the largest elections held amid the peak periods of Covid-19 infection. Utilizing spatial econometric models, it analyzes how geographical proximity to Covid-19 cases and electoral adjustments to reduce polling station crowding shaped voter behavior. The findings indicate that spatial effects, approximated via spatial autoregressive models, contributed to higher turnout during the pandemic. Moreover, electoral adjustments – specifically reductions in polling site population size – significantly influenced turnout. Although spatial effects were also observed in pre-pandemic elections, their magnitude increased during the pandemic. These results suggest that simple administrative interventions can reshape voters’ calculus during a public health crisis, offering insight into how turnout may evolve under exceptional circumstances.