IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Movements in the Equity Premium: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR

Listed author(s):
  • De Santis Massimiliano


    (Dartmouth College)

Registered author(s):

    Previous literature has recognized the importance of regime changes in the calculation of ex-ante equity premia. However, the methodologies used to estimate equity premia only allow for very restrictive forms of regime transitions. This paper addresses the issue by postulating an evolving model for the law of motion of dividend growth, consumption growth and dividend-price ratio. Model parameters are then used to compute conditional and unconditional U.S. equity premia. We substantially extend and confirm previous work on the declining equity premium, and uncover important macroeconomic factors driving the equity premium. We find that the equity premium has declined, particularly from 1950 to 1971 and from 1988 to 2000. Our results point to changing consumption volatility as an important priced factor. We find that volatility of consumption growth is a good indicator of economic uncertainty and, as such, its changes are reflected in expected returns, and are priced by the market. We also find that not accounting for parameter time variation induces large pricing errors, as too little variation in dividend yields is attributed to changes in expected dividend growth.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

    Volume (Year): 11 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 4 (December)
    Pages: 1-41

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:11:y:2007:i:4:n:1
    Contact details of provider: Web page:

    Order Information: Web:

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:11:y:2007:i:4:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.