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Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo methods and non-identifiabilities

Author

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  • Müller Christian

    (RwtH Aachen Joint Research Center for Computational Biomedicine, Aachen, Germany)

  • Weysser Fabian
  • Mrziglod Thomas

    (Bayer AG, Applied Mathematics, Leverkusen, Germany)

  • Schuppert Andreas

    (RwtH Aachen Joint Research Center for Computational Biomedicine, Aachen, Germany)

Abstract

We consider the problem of sampling from high-dimensional likelihood functions with large amounts of non-identifiabilities via Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo algorithms. Non-identifiabilities are problematic for commonly used proposal densities, leading to a low effective sample size. To address this problem, we introduce a regularization method using an artificial prior, which restricts non-identifiable parts of the likelihood function. This enables us to sample the posterior using common MCMC methods more efficiently. We demonstrate this with three MCMC methods on a likelihood based on a complex, high-dimensional blood coagulation model and a single series of measurements. By using the approximation of the artificial prior for the non-identifiable directions, we obtain a sample quality criterion. Unlike other sample quality criteria, it is valid even for short chain lengths. We use the criterion to compare the following three MCMC variants: The Random Walk Metropolis Hastings, the Adaptive Metropolis Hastings and the Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm.

Suggested Citation

  • Müller Christian & Weysser Fabian & Mrziglod Thomas & Schuppert Andreas, 2018. "Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo methods and non-identifiabilities," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 24(3), pages 203-214, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:mcmeap:v:24:y:2018:i:3:p:203-214:n:5
    DOI: 10.1515/mcma-2018-0018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Markus Krauss & Kai Tappe & Andreas Schuppert & Lars Kuepfer & Linus Goerlitz, 2015. "Bayesian Population Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Approach for a Physiologically Realistic Characterization of Interindividual Variability in Clinically Relevant Populations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(10), pages 1-22, October.
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      Keywords

      Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo; non-identifiability; 65C05;
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