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Estimating NHL Scoring Rates


  • Buttrey Samuel E

    (Naval Postgraduate School)

  • Washburn Alan R

    (Naval Postgraduate School)

  • Price Wilson L

    (Universite Laval)


We propose a model to estimate the rates at which NHL teams score and yield goals. In the model, goals occur as if from a Poisson process whose rate depends on the two teams playing, the home-ice advantage, and the manpower (power-play, short-handed) situation. Data on all the games from the 2008-2009 season was downloaded and processed into a form suitable for the analysis. The model seems to perform adequately in prediction and should be useful for handicapping and for informing the decision as to when to pull the goalie.

Suggested Citation

  • Buttrey Samuel E & Washburn Alan R & Price Wilson L, 2011. "Estimating NHL Scoring Rates," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-18, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:7:y:2011:i:3:n:24

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. repec:mes:challe:v:32:y:1989:i:4:p:54-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jones Marshall B, 2007. "Home Advantage in the NBA as a Game-Long Process," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-16, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wei Gu & Thomas L. Saaty & Rozann Whitaker, 2016. "Expert System for Ice Hockey Game Prediction: Data Mining with Human Judgment," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(04), pages 763-789, July.
    2. Lock Dennis & Nettleton Dan, 2014. "Using random forests to estimate win probability before each play of an NFL game," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-9, June.
    3. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:68:y:2017:i:9:d:10.1057_s41274-017-0243-2 is not listed on IDEAS

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