That's the Second-Biggest Hitting Streak I've Ever Seen! Verifying Simulated Historical Extremes in Baseball
There is considerable interest in two consecutive game streak records in baseball, namely, the celebrated 56-game hitting streak of Joe DiMaggio and the less famous 84-games-reaching-base streak of Ted Williams, and how likely these records would be predicted to occur if the history of Major League Baseball were repeated. I strive to answer this question through simulated replication using a series of Bernoulli-type models. I assume that the number of games played by each player in each season is held constant while the batting and on-base averages are estimated from and shrunk towards the career trends of each player to smooth over outlying seasons. These simulation models are then verified against streaks that might be expected to occur, such as all-time streaks ranked 6 through 30, and are allowed to vary over time to reflect the changing distribution of opposing pitching. I find that a validated model for predicting hitting streaks contains no hot hand effect and suggests that the variability of opposing pitching has decreased markedly in the past 140 years. I also find that under this model, the DiMaggio streak can be considered exceptional while validated models for on-base streaks require considerably more complexity, including but not limited to a term that dampens on-base streaks.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 6 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.degruyter.com |
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jqas|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:6:y:2010:i:4:n:7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.