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Parity and Predictability of Competitions

Author

Listed:
  • Ben-Naim Eli

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • Vazquez Federico

    (Boston University)

  • Redner Sidney

    (Boston University)

Abstract

We present an extensive statistical analysis of the results of all sports competitions in five major sports leagues in England and the United States. We characterize the parity among teams by the variance in the winning fraction from season-end standings data and quantify the predictability of games by the frequency of upsets from game results data. We introduce a novel mathematical model in which the underdog team wins with a fixed upset probability. This model quantitatively relates the parity among teams with the predictability of the games, and it can be used to estimate the upset frequency from standings data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben-Naim Eli & Vazquez Federico & Redner Sidney, 2006. "Parity and Predictability of Competitions," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 1-14, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:2:y:2006:i:4:n:1
    DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1034
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Demers Simon, 2015. "Riding a probabilistic support vector machine to the Stanley Cup," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 205-218, December.
    2. Sumit Sarkar & Sooraj Kamath, 2023. "Does luck play a role in the determination of the rank positions in football leagues? A study of Europe’s ‘big five’," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 245-260, June.
    3. Dorian Owen, 2014. "Measurement of competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome," Chapters, in: John Goddard & Peter Sloane (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 3, pages 41-59, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Rodriguez Alvaro, 2011. "Computing the Probability of Winning a Competition with an Application to Horse Races," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-11, July.
    5. repec:cup:judgdm:v:6:y:2011:i:1:p:58-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Stefan M. Herzog & Ralph Hertwig, 2011. "The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(1), pages 58-72, February.
    7. repec:cup:judgdm:v:8:y:2013:i:3:p:188-201 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Uriel Haran & Ilana Ritov & Barbara A. Mellers, 2013. "The role of actively open-minded thinking in information acquisition, accuracy, and calibration," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(3), pages 188-201, May.
    9. Luca Pappalardo & Paolo Cintia, 2018. "Quantifying The Relation Between Performance And Success In Soccer," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03n04), pages 1-30, May.

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