IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/jqsprt/v15y2019i4p261-269n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Offensive or defensive play in soccer: a game-theoretical approach

Author

Listed:
  • Gambarelli Daniele

    (Five Schools Beach Volley Associazione Sportiva Dilettantistica, Cesenatico (FC), Emilia Romagna, Italy)

  • Gambarelli Gianfranco

    (Università degli Studi di Bergamo, Department of Management, Economics and Quantitative Methods, Bergamo, Lombardia, Italy)

  • Goossens Dries

    (Ghent University, Department of Business Informatics and Operations Management, Gent, Belgium)

Abstract

In many sports, such as soccer, a coach has to decide whether to adopt an “offensive” or a “defensive” approach to a match. This strategic decision depends on the strengths and weaknesses of his team with respect to the opponent, but also on the strategy chosen by the opponent’s coach. The fact that a draw also results in a point, which may be important for the ranking, further complicates this decision, as the coach must assess whether it is better to adopt a defensive team formation in order to obtain a draw, or to aim for victory despite the increased risk of defeat. We study this topic by means of a game-theoretical approach, and we develop an algorithm which allows to compute the optimal strategy. The algorithm tests the stability of the outcome with respect to uncertainty in the estimated win probabilities. Furthermore, our approach can handle in-game events, which may provoke changes in optimal strategy. Finally, our model also allows us to assess the effect of various point systems on the willingness of teams to opt for attacking play. Our method is applied to a case study, based on the match Italy – Costa Rica (World Cup 2014).

Suggested Citation

  • Gambarelli Daniele & Gambarelli Gianfranco & Goossens Dries, 2019. "Offensive or defensive play in soccer: a game-theoretical approach," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 261-269, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:15:y:2019:i:4:p:261-269:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2017-0071
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2017-0071
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jqas-2017-0071?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:15:y:2019:i:4:p:261-269:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.