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Monetary Policy and Forecasts for Real GDP Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany

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  • Kirchgaässner Gebhard

    (University of St Gallen, St. Gallen, Canton of St. Gallen, Switzerland)

  • Savioz Marcel

    (Swiss National Bank, Neugasse, St. Gallen, Switzerland)

Abstract

Using quarterly data for the Federal Republic of Germany, we generate four-quarter-ahead forecasts for real GDP growth. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, other monetary indicators like real M1 or short-run interest rates clearly outperform forecasts which are based on interest rate spreads. This holds for within as well as for ex-post predictions. The same holds for the development after 1992. Moreover, it is shown that simple forecasts based on M1 or on short-run interest rates outperform the common biannual GNP forecasts of the group of German economic research institutes.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirchgaässner Gebhard & Savioz Marcel, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Forecasts for Real GDP Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 339-365, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:2:y:2001:i:4:p:339-365
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0475.00044
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    Cited by:

    1. Ulrich Fritsche & Artur Tarassow, 2017. "Vergleichende Evaluation der Konjunkturprognosen des Instituts für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung an der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung für den Zeitraum 2005-2014," IMK Studies 54-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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