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Deconstructing shocks and persistence in OECD real exchange rates1)

Author

Listed:
  • Basher Syed Abul

    (Department of Research and Monetary Policy, Qatar Central Bank, PO Box 1234, Doha, Qatar)

  • Carrion-i-Silvestre Josep Lluís

    (AQR-IREA Research Group, Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Spanish Economy, University of Barcelona, Av, Diagonal, 690, 08034 Barcelona)

Abstract

We study the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis and the PPP puzzle for a sample of seventeen OECD economies when real exchange rates (RERs) are subject to multiple structural breaks. Applying recent panel econometric methods, we first show that RERs are found to be I(1) non-stationary processes when the analysis neglects structural breaks, while they are characterized as I(0) stationary stochastic processes when structural breaks are accommodated. This indicates that ignoring structural breaks can lead to model misspecification, which can bias (upward) shocks’ persistence measures. After controlling for structural breaks, our half-life point estimates appear below one year for both idiosyncratic and common measures of persistence of deviation from the changing mean.

Suggested Citation

  • Basher Syed Abul & Carrion-i-Silvestre Josep Lluís, 2013. "Deconstructing shocks and persistence in OECD real exchange rates1)," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 187-212.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:13:y:2013:i:1:p:187-212:n:1008
    DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2012-0060
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    Keywords

    cross-sectional dependence; multiple structural breaks; panel data stationarity tests; shock persistence; JEL Classification: C32; C33; E31;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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