IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

An operational framework for the short-term forecasting of inflation

Listed author(s):
  • Maria K. Albani


    (Bank of Greece)

  • Nicholas G. Zonzilos


    (Bank of Greece)

  • Zacharias G. Bragoudakis


    (Bank of Greece)

Over the last 15 years the Greek economy has made significant progress towards macroeconomic stability with a remarkable degree of inflation containment both in levels and volatility. These changes in inflation dynamics have implications for the short term forecasting of inflation. This paper proposes a framework to forecast Greek inflation (measured by both the National and the Harmonised indices, and the subcomponents of HICP) at an 18-month horizon by blending pure econometric model based forecasts with expert judgement. A rolling out of sample forecasting exercise as well as a battery of standard statistical tests suggests that the proposed underlying dynamic econometric model with the inclusion of variables reflecting economic activity, domestic and foreign costs, exchange rates etc. forecast encompasses simple benchmark specifications. This conclusion seems reasonably robust to alternative competing benchmarks.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Bank of Greece in its journal Economic Bulletin.

Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): 29 (October)
Pages: 89-106

in new window

Handle: RePEc:bog:econbl:y:2007:i:29:p:89-106
Contact details of provider: Web page:

More information through EDIRC

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bog:econbl:y:2007:i:29:p:89-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christina Tsochatzi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.