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Una aproximación no lineal a la relación inflación - crecimiento económico: Un estudio para América Latina

  • Marcelo Ochoa

    (Banco Mundial)

  • Walter Orellana Rocha

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Existe un amplio consenso del efecto adverso de altas tasas de inflación sobre el crecimiento económico, no obstante, no existe pleno acuerdo en cuanto al efecto de tasas de inflación moderadas. Este trabajo re-examina la relación entre la inflación y el crecimiento en una muestra de nueve países de América Latina utilizando nuevas técnicas econométricas apropiadas para la evaluación e inferencia de relaciones no lineales. Los resultados de la investigación confirman la existencia de una relación no lineal entre ambas variables encontrando que tasas de inflación superiores a 17% ocasionan una contracción en la tasa de crecimiento del producto, pero tienen un efecto positivo cuando no superan este nivel. Sin embargo, el amplio intervalo de confianza encontrado para el punto de quiebre sugiere cautela al momento de hacer recomendaciones de política económica. Tasas de inflación mayores al 9%, dependiendo el país, podrían tener efectos adversos sobre el crecimiento. Cabe destacar que, de manera contraria a trabajos anteriores, los resultados encontrados se mantienen robustos ante la eliminación de observaciones extremas.

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Article provided by Banco Central de Bolivia in its journal Revista de Análisis.

Volume (Year): 5 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Pages: 87-126

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Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:87-126
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