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Crisis política y sanitaria: Respuesta de la política monetaria en tiempos de incertidumbre

Author

Listed:
  • Mauricio Mora Barrenechea
  • Juan Carlos Heredia Gómez
  • Paul Estrada Céspedes

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

Periodos de alta incertidumbre tienen consecuencias considerables sobre la actividad económica, por lo que los hacedores de política monetaria deben tener en cuenta el grado de incertidumbre en el cual se desenvuelve la economía. En el caso particular de Bolivia, la pandemia global del COVID-19, junto a un periodo de transición política, generó un inusitado incremento en la incertidumbre y, actualmente, es una de las principales fuentes de los efectos adversos en la economía. Utilizando un modelo SVAR, estimado con técnicas bayesianas, se cuantificaron los efectos de la incertidumbre sobre la economía. Los resultados obtenidos reflejan que periodos de alta incertidumbre tienen un impacto negativo y significativo sobre la actividad económica, el cual se transmite, principalmente, por una caída del consumo y de la inversión. El Banco Central de Bolivia responde con una política monetaria expansiva, inyectando recursos a la economía, pero esta tiene sus limitaciones.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio Mora Barrenechea & Juan Carlos Heredia Gómez & Paul Estrada Céspedes, 2020. "Crisis política y sanitaria: Respuesta de la política monetaria en tiempos de incertidumbre," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 33(1), pages 9-38, July - De.
    • Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:33:y:2020:i:1:p:9-38
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Incertidumbre; inestabilidad; COVID-19; política monetaria; SVAR bayesiano;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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