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Análisis del crecimiento y ciclos económicos: Una aplicación general para Bolivia

Author

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  • José P. Mauricio Vargas

Abstract

La presente investigación caracteriza el comportamiento macroeconómico de la economía boliviana y prueba el desempeño de un modelo de Equilibrio General Dinámico (EGD) que extiende la especificación neoclásica básica incluyendo el sector gobierno y cuatro tipos de shocks estocásticos para considerar variables nominales y de política fiscal. Se encuentra que Bolivia tiene una volatilidad del producto baja y un crecimiento explicado en casi un 50% por el aporte del factor trabajo. En general se pudieron replicar satisfactoriamente los hechos estilizados de la economía boliviana lo cual respalda la popularidad de este tipo de modelos. En particular, la simulación de variables reales y nominales pudo reproducir la volatilidad y la correlación con el producto observados en los datos, sin embargo se debe tener cuidado en su uso ya que no todos los resultados son robustos con la metodología de medición del componente cíclico de las variables.

Suggested Citation

  • José P. Mauricio Vargas, 2010. "Análisis del crecimiento y ciclos económicos: Una aplicación general para Bolivia," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 13(1), pages 9-47, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:13:y:2010:i:1:p:9-47
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crecimiento económico; ciclos económicos;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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