The Impact Of Carbon Pricing On The Performance Of Energy Firms: A Comparative Analysis Between Renewable And Traditional Energy

This study examines how carbon pricing and key macroeconomic factors influence the stock performance of energy firms, with a comparative focus on renewable versus traditional energy sectors. The analysis contrasts the European Renewable Energy Index (ERIX) with traditional energy stocks included in the MSCI index to evaluate differential impacts. A dataset of 1,279 daily observations is utilized, and a sequential econometric methodology—comprising OLS, GLS, WLS, and final GLSAR regression—is employed to control for non-stationarity and multicollinearity, thereby ensuring robust inference. The findings reveal that carbon pricing – proxied by EU carbon futures – is a significant driver of renewable energy stock performance, while its effect on traditional energy firms is positive but markedly smaller. In contrast, macroeconomic variables (interest rates, inflation, GDP) and even EU carbon allowance volumes exhibit limited or no statistically significant impact on either sector’s returns. These results suggest that renewable energy stocks are more sensitive to carbon market expectations than their conventional counterparts. The study offers important implications for both policymakers and investors: it underscores the policy relevance of carbon markets in incentivizing clean energy (supporting decarbonization goals) and informs investment strategies by highlighting that portfolio exposure to renewables versus traditional energy should be calibrated considering carbon price dynamics. This comparative evidence contributes to sustainable finance literature and can guide sector-specific portfolio management under evolving carbon pricing regimes.