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Too Many PhD Graduates or Too Few Academic Job Openings: The Basic Reproductive Number R0 in Academia

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  • Richard C. Larson
  • Navid Ghaffarzadegan
  • Yi Xue

Abstract

The academic job market has become increasingly competitive for PhD graduates. In this note, we ask the basic question of ‘Are we producing more PhDs than needed?’ We take a systems approach and offer a ‘birth rate’ perspective: professors graduate PhDs who later become professors themselves, an analogue to how a population grows. We show that the reproduction rate in academia is very high. For example, in engineering, a professor in the US graduates 7.8 new PhDs during his/her whole career on average, and only one of these graduates can replace the professor's position. This implies that in a steady state, only 12.8% of PhD graduates can attain academic positions in the USA. The key insight is that the system in many places is saturated, far beyond capacity to absorb new PhDs in academia at the rates that they are being produced. Based on the analysis, we discuss policy implications. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard C. Larson & Navid Ghaffarzadegan & Yi Xue, 2014. "Too Many PhD Graduates or Too Few Academic Job Openings: The Basic Reproductive Number R0 in Academia," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 745-750, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:srbeha:v:31:y:2014:i:6:p:745-750
    DOI: 10.1002/sres.2210
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    Cited by:

    1. Hyungjo Hur & Maryam A Andalib & Julie A Maurer & Joshua D Hawley & Navid Ghaffarzadegan, 2017. "Recent trends in the U.S. Behavioral and Social Sciences Research (BSSR) workforce," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Barbara Ermini & Luca Papi & Francesca Scaturro, 2016. "Over-education among italian Ph.D. graduates. Does the crisis make a difference?," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 126, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    3. Jason Brennan & Phillip Magness, 2018. "Estimating the Cost of Justice for Adjuncts: A Case Study in University Business Ethics," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 155-168, March.
    4. Elissa L. Perry & Carol T. Kulik & David B. Mendelsohn & DaHee Shon, 2022. "Faculty Gender Diversity, Institutional Performance, and the Role of Diversity Climate," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 63(7), pages 1204-1236, November.
    5. Robert J Speakman & Carla S Hadden & Matthew H Colvin & Justin Cramb & K C Jones & Travis W Jones & Isabelle Lulewicz & Katharine G Napora & Katherine L Reinberger & Brandon T Ritchison & Alexandra R , 2018. "Market share and recent hiring trends in anthropology faculty positions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-19, September.
    6. Jiale Yang & Qing Wu & Chuanyi Wang, 2022. "Research networks and the initial placement of PhD holders in academia: evidence from social science fields," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(6), pages 3253-3278, June.
    7. Jeongeun Kim & Molly Ott & Lindsey Dippold, 2020. "University and Department Influences on Scientists’ Occupational Outcomes," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 61(2), pages 197-228, March.
    8. Gen-Chang Hsu & Wei-Jiun Lin & Syuan-Jyun Sun, 2023. "Temporal trends in academic performance and career duration of principal investigators in ecology and evolutionary biology in Taiwan," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(6), pages 3437-3451, June.
    9. Clara Boothby & Staša Milojević, 2021. "An exploratory full-text analysis of Science Careers in a changing academic job market," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(5), pages 4055-4071, May.
    10. Navid Ghaffarzadegan & Ran Xu, 2018. "Late retirement, early careers, and the aging of U.S. science and engineering professors," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, December.
    11. Santos, João M. & Horta, Hugo & Heitor, Manuel, 2016. "Too many PhDs? An invalid argument for countries developing their scientific and academic systems: The case of Portugal," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 113(PB), pages 352-362.
    12. Zhuoran He & Tingtao Zhou, 2022. "A model for cooperative scientific research inspired by the ant colony algorithm," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-11, January.
    13. Spronken-Smith, Rachel, 2018. "REFORMING DOCTORAL EDUCATION: There is a Better Way," University of California at Berkeley, Center for Studies in Higher Education qt4s08b4jx, Center for Studies in Higher Education, UC Berkeley.
    14. Shmatko, Natalia & Katchanov, Yurij & Volkova, Galina, 2020. "The value of PhD in the changing world of work: Traditional and alternative research careers," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    15. Hyungjo Hur & Navid Ghaffarzadegan & Joshua Hawley, 2015. "Effects of Government Spending on Research Workforce Development: Evidence from Biomedical Postdoctoral Researchers," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-16, May.
    16. Sofia Moratti, 2020. "Do Low-Openness, Low-Transparency Procedures in Academic Hiring Disadvantage Women?," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-13, May.
    17. Hazhir Rahmandad & Keyvan Vakili, 2019. "Explaining Heterogeneity in the Organization of Scientific Work," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(6), pages 1125-1145, November.
    18. Ghaffarzadegan, Navid & Xue, Yi & Larson, Richard C., 2017. "Work-education mismatch: An endogenous theory of professionalization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 1085-1097.
    19. Navid Ghaffarzadegan & Richard Larson & Joshua Hawley, 2017. "Education as a Complex System," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 211-215, May.
    20. Laurie E Risner & Xenia K Morin & Evelyn S Erenrich & Philip S Clifford & Jeffrey Franke & Imogen Hurley & Nancy B Schwartz, 2020. "Leveraging a collaborative consortium model of mentee/mentor training to foster career progression of underrepresented postdoctoral researchers and promote institutional diversity and inclusion," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-23, September.
    21. Barbara Ermini & Luca Papi & Francesca Scaturro, 2017. "An Analysis of the Determinants of Over-Education Among Italian Ph.D Graduates," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(2), pages 167-207, July.
    22. Balietti, Stefano & Riedl, Christoph, 2021. "Incentives, competition, and inequality in markets for creative production," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(4).
    23. Sucharita Ghosh & Emanuele Grassi, 2020. "Overeducation and overskilling in the early careers of PhD graduates: Does international migration reduce labour market mismatch?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(4), pages 915-944, August.
    24. Navid Ghaffarzadegan & Richard C. Larson, 2018. "SD meets OR: a new synergy to address policy problems," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 327-353, January.

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