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Joining European Monetary Union: A Real Options Perspective

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  • Frank Strobel

Abstract

We examine the real option implicit in countries' decisions on whether to join a monetary union when future benefits of this move are uncertain. Our theoretical model is calibrated for the current Euro‐12 area and EU‐15 outs, proxying policymakers' inflation preferences with unemployment rates, debt‐to‐GDP and potential‐to‐actual‐GDP ratios. The Euro‐12 area is generally ready or close to wanting to expand, whereas the EU‐15 outs are unready to make that move at present and have widely varying probabilities of wanting to do so in the future, depending on the measure used.

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  • Frank Strobel, 2007. "Joining European Monetary Union: A Real Options Perspective," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(1), pages 105-115, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:54:y:2007:i:1:p:105-115
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9485.2007.00406.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Laetitia Lepetit & Clovis Rugemintwari & Frank Strobel, 2015. "Monetary, Financial and Fiscal Stability in the East African Community: Ready for a Monetary Union?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(8), pages 1179-1204, August.
    2. Alvarez, Fernando & Dixit, Avinash, 2014. "A real options perspective on the future of the Euro," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 78-109.

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