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Explaining Disagreement on Interest Rates in a Taylor‐Rule Setting

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  • Lena Dräger
  • Michael J. Lamla

Abstract

Most studies on disagreement focus on one specific variable, thereby neglecting the fact that disagreement can be co‐moving with disagreement on other variables. In this paper, we explore to what extent disagreement regarding the interest rate is driven by disagreement on inflation and unemployment. This relationship can be motivated by the theoretical concept of the Taylor rule. Using survey microdata for both professional forecasters and consumers, we provide evidence that disagreement on the interest rate is mainly driven by disagreement on inflation. We further show that disagreement is significantly influenced by central bank transparency, as well as news on money and credit conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2017. "Explaining Disagreement on Interest Rates in a Taylor‐Rule Setting," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 119(4), pages 987-1009, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:119:y:2017:i:4:p:987-1009
    DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12217
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    Cited by:

    1. Bauer, Michael D. & Pflueger, Carolin E. & Sunderam, Adi, 2022. "Perceptions about monetary policy," IMFS Working Paper Series 176, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    2. Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro, 2020. "Disagreements in Consumer Inflation Expectations: Empirical Evidence for a Latin American Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(2), pages 99-122, November.
    3. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2023. "The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 625-642, April.
    4. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J., 2023. "Consumers' Macroeconomic Expectations," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-714, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    5. Ruttachai Seelajaroen & Pornanong Budsaratragoon & Boonlert Jitmaneeroj, 2020. "Do monetary policy transparency and central bank communication reduce interest rate disagreement?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 368-393, April.
    6. Tomasz Łyziak & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2023. "Disagreement in Consumer Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2215-2241, December.

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