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Predicting Spatial Patterns of House Prices Using LPR and Bayesian Smoothing

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  • John M. Clapp
  • Hyon-Jung Kim
  • Alan E. Gelfand

Abstract

This article is motivated by the limited ability of standard hedonic price equations to deal with spatial variation in house prices. Spatial patterns of house prices can be viewed as the sum of many causal factors: Access to the central business district is associated with a house price gradient; access to decentralized employment subcenters causes more localized changes in house prices; in addition, neighborhood amenities (and disamenities) can cause house prices to change rapidly over relatively short distances. Spatial prediction (e.g., for an automated valuation system) requires models that can deal with all of these sources of spatial variation. We propose to accommodate these factors using a standard hedonic framework but incoporating a semiparametric model with structure in the residuals modeled with a partially Bayesian approach. The Bayesian framework enables us to provide complete inference in the form of a posterior distribution for each model parameter. Our model allows prediction at sampled or unsampled locations as well as prediction interval estimates. The nonparametric part of our model allows sufficient flexibility to find substantial spatial variation in house values. The parameters of the kriging model provide further insights into spatial patterns. Out-of-sample mean squared error and related statistics validate the proposed methods and justify their use for spatial prediction of house values. Copyright 2002 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Suggested Citation

  • John M. Clapp & Hyon-Jung Kim & Alan E. Gelfand, 2002. "Predicting Spatial Patterns of House Prices Using LPR and Bayesian Smoothing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 505-532.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:30:y:2002:i:4:p:505-532
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Capone, Charles A, Jr, 2001. "Introduction to the Special Issue on Mortgage Modeling," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 131-137, September.
    2. Pavlov, Andrey D, 2001. "Competing Risks of Mortgage Termination: Who Refinances, Who Moves, and Who Defaults?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 185-211, September.
    3. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
    4. Andrey D. Pavlov, 2000. "Space-Varying Regression Coefficients: A Semi-parametric Approach Applied to Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 249-283.
    5. Stanton, Richard Henry, 1996. "Unobservable Heterogeneity and Rational Learning: Pool-Specific versus Generic Mortgage-Backed Security Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 243-263, May.
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    7. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C. & Muller III, Walter J. & Epperson, James F., 1995. "The Valuation at Origination of Fixed-Rate Mortgages with Default and Prepayment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-36, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. José-María Montero-Lorenzo & Beatriz Larraz-Iribas, 2012. "Space-time approach to commercial property prices valuation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(28), pages 3705-3715, October.
    2. Jorge Chica-Olmo, 2007. "Prediction of Housing Location Price by a Multivariate Spatial Method: Cokriging," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(1), pages 95-114.
    3. W. Brunauer & S. Lang & P. Wechselberger & S. Bienert, 2010. "Additive Hedonic Regression Models with Spatial Scaling Factors: An Application for Rents in Vienna," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 390-411, November.
    4. Yong Tu & Hua Sun & Shi-Ming Yu, 2007. "Spatial Autocorrelations and Urban Housing Market Segmentation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 385-406, April.
    5. repec:bla:revinw:v:63:y:2017:i:4:p:881-898 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:asg:wpaper:1006 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Fritsch, Markus & Haupt, Harry & Ng, Pin T., 2016. "Urban house price surfaces near a World Heritage Site: Modeling conditional price and spatial heterogeneity," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 260-275.
    8. José-María Montero-Lorenzo & Beatriz Larraz-Iribas & Antonio Páez, 2009. "Estimating commercial property prices: an application of cokriging with housing prices as ancillary information," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, pages 407-425.
    9. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:61:y:2010:i:5:d:10.1057_jors.2009.31 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Wolfgang Brunauer & Stefan Lang & Peter Wechselberger & Sven Bienert, 2008. "Additive Hedonic Regression Models with Spatial Scaling Factors: An Application for Rents in Vienna," Working Papers 2008-17, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    11. Alicia Rambaldi & Ryan McAllister & Kerry Collins & Cameron Fletcher, 2011. "An Unobserved Components Approach to Separating Land from Structure in Property Prices: A Case Study for the City of Brisbane," Discussion Papers Series 428, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    12. Mynbaev, Kairat & Ibrayeva, Saniya, 2011. "Housing market of Almaty," MPRA Paper 36683, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Tony Addison & Yukka Pirttilä & Finn Tarp & Carlos Felipe Balcázar & Lidia Ceriani & Sergio Olivieri & Marco Ranzani, 2017. "Rent-Imputation for Welfare Measurement: A Review of Methodologies and Empirical Findings," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, pages 881-898.
    14. Norman G. Miller & Michael A. Sklarz & Thomas G. Thibodeau, 2005. "The Impact of Interest Rates and Employment on Nominal Housing Prices," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 8(1), pages 27-43.
    15. Jose Montero & Beatriz Larraz, 2010. "Estimating Housing Prices: A Proposal with Spatially Correlated Data," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, pages 39-51.
    16. repec:kap:iaecre:v:16:y:2010:i:1:p:39-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Girum D. Abate & Luc Anselin, 2016. "House price fluctuations and the business cycle dynamics," CREATES Research Papers 2016-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Bin, Okmyung, 2004. "A prediction comparison of housing sales prices by parametric versus semi-parametric regressions," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 68-84, March.

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