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Some Thoughts on Causation as It Relates to Demography and Population Studies

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  • Herbert L. Smith

Abstract

The counterfactual account of causality defines an effect as the difference, for some unit, between an outcome under an observed treatment and an outcome under a hypothetical alternative. When units are heterogeneous in a population, there is no single causal effect. The micro‐level account of causation is complicated when units interact with one another, as they do in human populations. The search for causation requires manipulation. But key micro‐level demographic variables—age, race, sex—are not easily manipulated. What are subject to manipulation are the social rules, policies, or choice sets available to individuals within populations. Thus causes are best conceptualized at the macro level, even if their effects are observed at the micro level.

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  • Herbert L. Smith, 2003. "Some Thoughts on Causation as It Relates to Demography and Population Studies," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 29(3), pages 459-469, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:29:y:2003:i:3:p:459-469
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2003.00459.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Herbert L. Smith, 2014. "Effects of Causes and Causes of Effects," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 43(3), pages 406-415, August.
    2. Marynia Kolak & Luc Anselin, 2020. "A Spatial Perspective on the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 43(1-2), pages 128-153, January.
    3. Guillaume Wunsch, 2007. "Confounding and control," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(4), pages 97-120.
    4. Husain, Muhammad Jami, 2010. "Contribution of health to economic development: A survey and overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-52.
    5. Herbert L. Smith, 2008. "Advances in Age–Period–Cohort Analysis," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 36(3), pages 287-296, February.
    6. Martin Kreidl & Zuzana Žilinčíková, 2023. "Adult children’s union type and contact with mothers: A replication," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(23), pages 641-680.
    7. Husain, Muhammad Jami, 2009. "Contribution of health to economic development: a survey and overview," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-40, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Robert Moffitt, 2005. "Remarks on the analysis of causal relationships in population research," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(1), pages 91-108, February.
    9. Herbert L. Smith, 2005. "Introducing New Contraceptives in Rural China: A Field Experiment," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 599(1), pages 246-271, May.

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