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Modeling Sovereign Risks: From A Hybrid Model To The Generalized Density Approach

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  • Ying Jiao
  • Shanqiu Li

Abstract

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed†form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long†term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.

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  • Ying Jiao & Shanqiu Li, 2018. "Modeling Sovereign Risks: From A Hybrid Model To The Generalized Density Approach," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 240-267, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:mathfi:v:28:y:2018:i:1:p:240-267
    DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12136
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    Cited by:

    1. Zied Chaieb & Djibril Gueye, 2022. "Pricing zero-coupon CAT bonds using the enlargement of ltration theory: a general framework," Papers 2208.02609, arXiv.org.
    2. Paoyu Huang & Chih-Te Yang & Yuhsin Chen & Yensen Ni, 2023. "A New Look on the Profitability of Fixed and Indexed Mortgage Products," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-16, August.
    3. Tahir Choulli & Catherine Daveloose & Michèle Vanmaele, 2020. "A martingale representation theorem and valuation of defaultable securities," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1527-1564, October.
    4. Tahir Choulli & Sina Yansori, 2022. "Log-optimal and numéraire portfolios for market models stopped at a random time," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 535-585, July.
    5. Zied Chaieb & Djibril Gueye, 2022. "Pricing zero-coupon CAT bonds using the enlargement of ltration theory: a general framework ," Post-Print hal-03745077, HAL.

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