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Long-Memory Risk Premia in Exchange Rates


  • Byers, J D
  • Peel, D A


The authors examine the time series properties of spot rates, forecast errors, and forward premia for several countries in both the interwar and postwar floating exchange rate periods. They find that forward premia often appear to be well described by fractional processes, suggesting that risk premia follow fractional processes given rational expectations. This empirical finding is consistent with existing theoretical models if the underlying forces driving the risk premium involve fractional processes. Copyright 1996 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Suggested Citation

  • Byers, J D & Peel, D A, 1996. "Long-Memory Risk Premia in Exchange Rates," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 64(4), pages 421-438, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:64:y:1996:i:4:p:421-38

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Robertson, D & Symons, J, 1994. "Five Weeks in the Life of the Pound. Interest Rates, Expectations and Sterling's Exit from the ERM," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(1), pages 1-12, February.
    2. Levin, Eric J & Copeland, Laurence S, 1993. "Reading the Message from the U.K. Indexed Bond Market: Real Interest Rates, Expected Inflation and the Risk Premium," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(0), pages 13-34, Suppl..
    3. Woodward, G Thomas, 1990. "The Real Thing: A Dynamic Profile of the Term Structure of Real Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations in the United Kingdom, 1982-89," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 373-398, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:kap:iaecre:v:6:y:2000:i:1:p:33-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mulligan, Robert F. & Koppl, Roger, 2011. "Monetary policy regimes in macroeconomic data: An application of fractal analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 201-211, May.
    3. Sofiane Sekioua, 2004. "The forward unbiasedness hypothesis and the forward premium: a nonlinear analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 85, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    4. Mulligan, Robert F., 2004. "Fractal analysis of highly volatile markets: an application to technology equities," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 155-179, February.
    5. Mulligan, Robert F. & Lombardo, Gary A., 2004. "Maritime businesses: volatile stock prices and market valuation inefficiencies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 321-336, May.
    6. Sekioua, Sofiane H., 2006. "Nonlinear adjustment in the forward premium: evidence from a threshold unit root test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 164-183.
    7. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Jerry Coakley, 2001. "Rethinking the Forward Premium Puzzle in a Non-linear Framework," Working Papers wp01-06, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    8. Robert Mulligan, 2000. "A fractal analysis of foreign exchange markets," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 33-49, February.

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