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Fundamentals or Noise? Evidence from the Professional Basketball Betting Market

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  • Brown, William O
  • Sauer, Raymond D

Abstract

This paper uses the betting market for professional basketball games to address the issue of unexplained asset price volatility. A pricing model is presented that identifies two components in point spreads for professional basketball games. Both components--the market's estimate of relative team abilities and an idiosyncratic factor--are essentially unobserved but can be identified ex post. The structure of this market enables tests of competing hypotheses about point spread variation. The tests reject the hypothesis that variation in the two components represents irrelevant noise. The hypothesis that unobserved fundamentals account for this variation is consistent with the data. Copyright 1993 by American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Brown, William O & Sauer, Raymond D, 1993. " Fundamentals or Noise? Evidence from the Professional Basketball Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1193-1209, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:48:y:1993:i:4:p:1193-1209
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    Cited by:

    1. Brown, Gregory W. & Hartzell, Jay C., 2001. "Market reaction to public information: The atypical case of the Boston Celtics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 333-370, May.
    2. Jinook Jeong & Jee Young Kim & Yoon Jae Ro, 2017. "On the Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Market: A New Test for the Favorite-Longshot Bias," Working papers 2017rwp-106, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    3. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2011. ""White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 31469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Baryla Jr., Edward A. & Borghesi, Richard A. & Dare, William H. & Dennis, Steven A., 2007. "Learning, price formation and the early season bias in the NBA," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 155-164, September.
    5. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
      • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. Timothy J. Brailsford & Philip K. Gray & Stephen A. Easton & Stephen F. Gray, 1995. "The Efficiency of Australian Football Betting Markets," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 20(2), pages 167-195, December.
    7. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2015. "A study of a market anomaly: “White Men Can’t Jump”, but would you bet on it?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 13-25.
    8. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2012. "Racial biases and market outcomes: "White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 36069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Raymond Sauer & J. Waller & Jahn Hakes, 2010. "The progress of the betting in a baseball game," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 297-313, March.
    10. Berkowitz, Jason P. & Depken, Craig A. & Gandar, John M., 2015. "Information and accuracy in pricing: Evidence from the NCAA men׳s basketball betting market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 16-32.
    11. Vaughan Williams, Leighton & Stekler, Herman O., 2010. "Sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 445-447, July.
      • Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2007-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jan 2007.
    12. Arne Feddersen & Brad Humphreys & Brian Soebbing, 2013. "Sentiment Bias in National Basketball Association Betting," Working Papers 13-03, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    13. Arne Feddersen & Brad R. Humphreys & Brian P. Soebbing, 2017. "Sentiment Bias And Asset Prices: Evidence From Sports Betting Markets And Social Media," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 1119-1129, April.
    14. Benjamin Waggoner & Daniel Wines & Brian P. Soebbing & Chad S. Seifried & Jean Michael Martinez, 2014. "“Hot Hand” in the National Basketball Association Point Spread Betting Market: A 34-Year Analysis," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(4), pages 1-12, November.

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