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It takes time: A remarkable example of delayed recognition

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  • Ben Van Calster

Abstract

The way in which scientific publications are picked up by the research community can vary. Some articles become instantly cited, whereas others go unnoticed for some time before they are discovered or rediscovered. Papers with delayed recognition have also been labeled “sleeping beauties.” I briefly discuss an extreme case of a sleeping beauty. Peirce's short note in Science in 1884 shows a remarkable increase in citations since around 2000. The note received less than 1 citation per year in the decades prior to 2000, 3.5 citations per year in the 2000s, and 10.4 in the 2010s. This increase was seen in several domains, most notably meteorology, medical prediction research, and economics. The paper outlines formulas to evaluate a binary prediction system for a binary outcome. This citation increase in various domains may be attributed to a widespread, growing research focus on mathematical prediction systems and the evaluation thereof. Several recently suggested evaluation measures essentially reinvented or extended Peirce's 120‐year‐old ideas.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben Van Calster, 2012. "It takes time: A remarkable example of delayed recognition," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 63(11), pages 2341-2344, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jamist:v:63:y:2012:i:11:p:2341-2344
    DOI: 10.1002/asi.22732
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    Cited by:

    1. Adil El Aichouchi & Philippe Gorry, 2018. "Delayed recognition of Judah Folkman’s hypothesis on tumor angiogenesis: when a Prince awakens a Sleeping Beauty by self-citation," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 116(1), pages 385-399, July.
    2. Lutz Bornmann & Adam Y. Ye & Fred Y. Ye, 2018. "Identifying “hot papers” and papers with “delayed recognition” in large-scale datasets by using dynamically normalized citation impact scores," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 116(2), pages 655-674, August.
    3. Miura, Takahiro & Asatani, Kimitaka & Sakata, Ichiro, 2023. "Revisiting the uniformity and inconsistency of slow-cited papers in science," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1).
    4. Hélder Ferreira & Aurora A.C. Teixeira, 2013. "‘Welcome to the experience economy’: assessing the influence of customer experience literature through bibliometric analysis," FEP Working Papers 481, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    5. Hui Fang, 2018. "Analysing the variation tendencies of the numbers of yearly citations for sleeping beauties in science by using derivative analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(2), pages 1051-1070, May.
    6. Diego Raphael Amancio, 2015. "Comparing the topological properties of real and artificially generated scientific manuscripts," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 105(3), pages 1763-1779, December.

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