A Procedure for Life‐Cycle‐Based Solid Waste Management with Consideration of Uncertainty

The development of integrated solid‐waste management (SWM) strategies that are efficient with respect to both cost and environmental performance is a complex task. It must incorporate the numerous interrelations among different unit operations in the solid waste system (e.g., collection, recycling, and combustion), and the large number of design parameters that affect estimates of cost and environmental emissions. Uncertainty in design and operational parameters can lead to uncertainty in the estimates of cost and emissions. This article describes an extension of the capability of the Integrated Solid Waste Management Decision Support Tool (ISWM DST) to enable consideration of the effects of uncertainty in input parameters. The uncertainty analysis capability is illustrated using a hypothetical case study of a typical municipality. Results show that increased expenditure does not necessarily result in a reduction in the expected levels of environmental emissions and that some SWM alternatives may be more robust, although deterministic estimates of their expected performances are similar. The uncertainty analysis also facilitates use of the ISWM DST by policy makers responsible for evaluation of the expected effect of SWM practices on, for example, greenhouse‐gas emissions.