The Incomplete Leap: On the Transition From Union Registration to the First Collective Agreement

In decentralized systems where unionization and bargaining occur at the establishment level, what explains the (speedy) transition from union registration to the first collective agreement? While prior evidence in some developed countries (i.e., the United States) estimates this transition to be approximately a year, on average, little to no evidence exists in other contexts where unions play a less central role, as is the case in many developing countries. Addressing this gap, we analyze the Philippines where national unionization and collective bargaining coverage rates are relatively low. Using methods from survival analysis on novel register data of all new union registrations from 2016 to 2021, we descriptively demonstrate that: (i) median union membership density is low at 40%; (ii) only 20% of all new union registrations successfully register a contract within the first 5 years; and (iii) unions with higher densities, that are independent, and in the manufacturing sector are associated with elevated transition rates to a collective agreement.