IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/finrev/v29y1994i1p49-75.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock Market Efficiency and the Federal Budget Deficit: Another Anomaly?

Author

Listed:
  • Darrat, Ali F
  • Brocato, Joe

Abstract

This paper investigates the efficiency of the U.S. stock market as it pertains to a number of major macrofinance variables that theory and empirical evidence suggest are important in rational stock pricing decisions. A multivariate vector autoregressive analysis is used to draw efficiency inferences. The estimated factor pricings are consistent with theory and previous empirical research. In addition, these results indicate that the stock market may be inefficient with respect to the federal budget deficit variable. Similar apparent inefficiency evidence is obtained for the term structure and risk premium variables. The authors cannot reject the efficiency hypothesis for industrial production, inflation, and base money. Using indirect causality tests, the authors find plausible intermediate information linkages connecting variables in the system. The term structure and risk premia variables consistently appear important as intermediate conduits through which information about other factors impact stock returns. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Darrat, Ali F & Brocato, Joe, 1994. "Stock Market Efficiency and the Federal Budget Deficit: Another Anomaly?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 49-75, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:29:y:1994:i:1:p:49-75
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Ying, 2001. "Exchange rates, stock prices, and money markets: evidence from Singapore," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-458.
    2. Sadorsky, Perry, 2003. "The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 191-205.
    3. Ali Darrat, 2002. "On Budget Deficits And Interest Rates: Another Look At The Evidence," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 19-29.
    4. Klaus Grobys, 2013. "An empirical analysis of changes of the impact of federal budget deficits on stock market returns: evidence from the US economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(9), pages 921-924, June.
    5. Ming-Hsiang Chen, 2013. "The Impact of Demand and Supply Shocks on US Hospitality Index Returns," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(2), pages 349-371, April.
    6. Unro Lee, 1997. "Stock Market and Macroeconomic Policies: New Evidence from Pacific Basin Countries," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 273-289, December.
    7. A. F. Darrat & R. N. Dickens, 1999. "On the interrelationships among real, monetary, and financial variables," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 289-293.
    8. Pooja Joshi & A. K. Giri, 2015. "Cointegration and Causality between Macroeconomic variables and Stock Prices: Empirical Analysis from Indian Economy," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 327-345, December.
    9. Perry Sadorsky, 2003. "The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 191-205.
    10. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2009. "Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: Evidence for the United States," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 633-650, May.
    11. Ming-Hsiang Chen, 2010. "Federal Reserve Monetary Policy and US Hospitality Stock Returns," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(4), pages 833-852, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:29:y:1994:i:1:p:49-75. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.