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Living standards and plague in London, 1560–1665

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  • Neil Cummins
  • Morgan Kelly
  • Cormac Ó Gráda

Abstract

We use individual records of 920,000 burials and 630,000 baptisms to reconstruct the spatial and temporal patterns of birth and death in London from 1560 to 1665, a period dominated by recurrent plague. The plagues of 1563, 1603, 1625, and 1665 appear of roughly equal magnitude, with deaths running at five to six times their usual rate, but the impact on wealthier central parishes falls markedly through time. Tracking the weekly spread of plague before 1665 we find a consistent pattern of elevated mortality spreading from the same northern suburbs. Looking at the seasonal pattern of mortality, we find that the characteristic autumn spike associated with plague continued into the early 1700s. Given that individual cases of plague and typhus are frequently indistinguishable, claims that plague suddenly vanished after 1665 should be treated with caution. Natural increase improved as smaller plagues disappeared after 1590, but fewer than half of those born survived childhood.
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Suggested Citation

  • Neil Cummins & Morgan Kelly & Cormac Ó Gráda, 2016. "Living standards and plague in London, 1560–1665," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 69(1), pages 3-34, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ehsrev:v:69:y:2016:i:1:p:3-34
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ehr.2016.69.issue-1
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    Cited by:

    1. James Davies, 2021. "Economic Inequality and Covid-19 Death Rates in the First Wave, a Cross-Country Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8957, CESifo.
    2. Utteeyo Dasgupta & Chandan Kumar Jha & Sudipta Sarangi, 2021. "Persistent Patterns Of Behavior: Two Infectious Disease Outbreaks 350 Years Apart," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(2), pages 848-857, April.
    3. Madsen, Jakob B. & Robertson, Peter E. & Ye, Longfeng, 2024. "Lives versus livelihoods in the middle ages: The impact of the plague on trade over 400 years," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. Guido Alfani & Cormac Ó Gráda, 2018. "Famine and Disease in Economic History: A Summary Introduction," Working Papers 201803, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    5. van Besouw, Bram & Curtis, Daniel R., 2022. "Estimating warfare-related civilian mortality in the early modern period: Evidence from the Low Countries, 1620–99," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Leigh Shaw‐Taylor, 2020. "An introduction to the history of infectious diseases, epidemics and the early phases of the long‐run decline in mortality," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(3), pages 1-19, August.

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