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Robust Capital Requirements with Model Risk

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  • Pauline Barrieu
  • Claudia Ravanelli

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> We study capital requirements when the bank's econometric model only approximately describes the dynamics of portfolio returns—which is virtually always the case in practice. We derive a simple formula for capital requirements based on a first-order Taylor expansion of the Value at Risk around a ‘model confidence’ parameter. This formula allows to reflect the bank's confidence in the econometric model into capital requirements in a theoretically consistent manner. Numerical and empirical applications show that our formula provides valuable information for quantifying capital requirements under model risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Pauline Barrieu & Claudia Ravanelli, 2015. "Robust Capital Requirements with Model Risk," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 44(1), pages 1-28, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:44:y:2015:i:1:p:1-28
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    Cited by:

    1. Makariou, Despoina & Barrieu, Pauline & Tzougas, George, 2021. "A finite mixture modelling perspective for combining experts’ opinions with an application to quantile-based risk measures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110763, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Lazar, Emese & Zhang, Ning, 2019. "Model risk of expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 74-93.
    3. Gourieroux, Christian & Tiomo, Andre, 2019. "The Evaluation of Model Risk for Probability of Default and Expected Loss," MPRA Paper 95795, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Cosma, Simona & Rimo, Giuseppe & Torluccio, Giuseppe, 2023. "Knowledge mapping of model risk in banking," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Despoina Makariou & Pauline Barrieu & George Tzougas, 2021. "A Finite Mixture Modelling Perspective for Combining Experts’ Opinions with an Application to Quantile-Based Risk Measures," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-25, June.

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