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The Evolution Of Vat Rates And Government Tax Revenue In Mexico


  • José A. Pagán
  • Gökçe Soydemir
  • José A. Tijerina‐Guajardo


As a response to the 1994 Mexican peso crisis, in April 1995 the Mexican government increased the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate from 10 to 15%. More recently, policy makers have debated the potential economic impact of a reduction in the VAT rate on VAT revenue. Using a vector autoregression (VAR) model, this article analyzes the dynamics between government spending, inflation, the VAT rate, and VAT revenue in Mexico. The results from the estimated impulse response functions and variance decompositions indicate that VAT rate hikes lead to increases in government tax receipts. Further, tax collections play an important role in explaining movements in the rate of inflation in the Mexican economy. Overall, the findings are consistent with the view that increases (decreases) in the VAT rate result in larger (smaller) tax revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • José A. Pagán & Gökçe Soydemir & José A. Tijerina‐Guajardo, 2001. "The Evolution Of Vat Rates And Government Tax Revenue In Mexico," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(4), pages 424-433, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:19:y:2001:i:4:p:424-433
    DOI: 10.1093/cep/19.4.424

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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Kazakova & Alexandr Knobel & Ilya Sokolov, 2010. "Quality of VAT administration in OECD countries and Russia. Reform of the Russian system of tax collection," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 134P.
    2. Thomas Marois, 2014. "Historical Precedents, Contemporary Manifestations," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 46(3), pages 308-330, September.
    3. Domenica Tropeano, 2006. "Fiscal policy and economic adjustment in emerging economies: what happens after the economic reforms?," Working Papers 30-2006, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Nov 2008.
    4. Knobel, Alexander & Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey & Sokolov, Iliya, 2011. "Quality of VAT administration in OECD countries and Russia," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 21(1), pages 16-34.
    5. Richard M. Bird & Michael Smart, 2012. "Financing Social Expenditures in Developing Countries: Payroll or Value Added Taxes?," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1206, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    6. Fikri R. Arrachman & Riatu M. Qibthiyyah, 2018. "The Relationship of VAT Rate and Revenues in the Case of Informality," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 64, pages 73-96, Juni.
    7. Alexander Knobel & Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Ilya Sokolov, 2013. "Quality of the Administration of Value-Added Tax in OECD countries and Russia," Working Papers 0050, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.

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