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The Effect of Minimum Wages on Labour Market Outcomes: County-Level Estimates from the Restaurant-and-Bar Sector

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  • John T. Addison
  • McKinley L. Blackburn
  • Chad D. Cotti

Abstract

We use county-level data on employment and earnings in the restaurant-and-bar sector to evaluate the impact of minimum wage changes on low-wage labor markets. Our empirical approach is similar to the literature that has used state-level panel data to estimate minimum-wage impacts, with the difference that we focus on a particular sector rather than demographic group. Our estimated models are consistent with a simple competitive model of the restaurant-and-bar labor market in which supply-and-demand factors affect both the equilibrium outcome and the probability that a minimum wage will be binding in any given time period. Our evidence does not suggest that minimum wages reduce employment in the overall restaurant-and-bar sector, after controls for trends in sector employment at the county level are incorporated in the model. Employment in this sector appears to exhibit a downward long-term trend in states that have increased their minimum wages relative to states that have not, thereby predisposing fixed-effects estimates towards finding negative employment effects.
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Suggested Citation

  • John T. Addison & McKinley L. Blackburn & Chad D. Cotti, 2012. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Labour Market Outcomes: County-Level Estimates from the Restaurant-and-Bar Sector," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 50(3), pages 412-435, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:brjirl:v:50:y:2012:i:3:p:412-435
    DOI: j.1467-8543.2010.00819.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Card, 1992. "Using Regional Variation in Wages to Measure the Effects of the Federal Minimum Wage," Working Papers 680, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    2. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 772-793, September.
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    5. David Neumark & William Wascher, 1992. "Employment Effects of Minimum and Subminimum Wages: Panel Data on State Minimum Wage Laws," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(1), pages 55-81, October.
    6. Peter F. Orazem & J. Peter Mattila, 2002. "Minimum Wage Effects on Hours, Employment, and Number of Firms: The Iowa Case," Journal of Labor Research, Transaction Publishers, vol. 23(1), pages 3-23, January.
    7. David Card, 1992. "Using Regional Variation in Wages to Measure the Effects of the Federal Minimum Wage," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(1), pages 22-37, October.
    8. Alan B. Krueger & David Card, 2000. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1397-1420, December.
    9. Stephen Bazen & Julie Le Gallo, 2009. "The Differential Impact Of Federal And State Minimum Wages On Teenage Employment," Working Papers halshs-00382509, HAL.
    10. repec:fth:prinin:300 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Stephen G. Donald & Kevin Lang, 2007. "Inference with Difference-in-Differences and Other Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 221-233, May.
    12. Neumark, David & Wascher, William, 2007. "Minimum Wages, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and Employment: Evidence from the Post-Welfare Reform Era," IZA Discussion Papers 2610, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    13. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-338, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Addison & McKinley Blackburn & Chad Cotti, 2015. "On the robustness of minimum wage effects: geographically-disparate trends and job growth equations," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Barry T. Hirsch & Bruce E. Kaufman & Tetyana Zelenska, 2015. "Minimum Wage Channels of Adjustment," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 199-239, April.
    3. Wehby, George & Dave, Dhaval M. & Kaestner, Robert, 2016. "Effects of the Minimum Wage on Infant Health," IZA Discussion Papers 10039, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Holmlund, Bertil, 2014. "What do labor market institutions do?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 62-69.
    5. Addison, John T. & Ozturk, Orgul Demet, 2010. "Minimum Wages, Labor Market Institutions, and Female Employment and Unemployment: A Cross-Country Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 5162, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. David Pence Slichter, 2015. "The Employment Effects of the Minimum Wage: A Selection Ratio Approach to Measuring Treatment Effects," 2015 Papers psl76, Job Market Papers.
    7. Dube, Arindrajit & Lester, T. William & Reich, Michael, 2012. "Minimum Wage Shocks, Employment Flows and Labor Market Frictions," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt76p927ks, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    8. David Neumark & J.M. Ian Salas & William Wascher, 2013. "Revisiting the Minimum Wage-Employment Debate: Throwing Out the Baby with the Bathwater?," NBER Working Papers 18681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. repec:bla:coecpo:v:36:y:2018:i:1:p:116-135 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Vincent Geloso, 2016. "The Turnover-Reducing Effects of the Minimum Wage may Harm the Economy," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 318-325, October.
    11. Paulina Broniatowska & Aleksandra Majchrowska & Zbigniew Zolkiewski, 2015. "Minimum wage and youth unemployment in local labor markets in Poland," Lodz Economics Working Papers 4/2015, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    12. repec:bla:ecinqu:v:55:y:2017:i:4:p:1712-1737 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Evan Totty, 2017. "The Effect Of Minimum Wages On Employment: A Factor Model Approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(4), pages 1712-1737, October.
    14. Addison, John T. & Blackburn, McKinley L. & Cotti, Chad D., 2013. "Minimum wage increases in a recessionary environment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 30-39.
    15. Cui, Lin & Walsh, Randall, 2015. "Foreclosure, vacancy and crime," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 72-84.
    16. Dube, Arindrajit & Lester, T. William & Reich, Michael, 2013. "Minimum Wage Shocks, Employment Flows and Labor Market Frictions," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt27z0006g, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    17. Ekaterina Jardim & Mark C. Long & Robert Plotnick & Emma van Inwegen & Jacob Vigdor & Hilary Wething, 2017. "Minimum Wage Increases, Wages, and Low-Wage Employment: Evidence from Seattle," NBER Working Papers 23532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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