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On Risk Deductions In Public Project Appraisal

  • Jock R. Anderson

Project appraisal under uncertainty should, in general, be worked in terms of carefully computed expected or mean values of uncertain elements. The major exceptions are when: (a) project returns are large relative to national income; or (b) project returns are highly correlated with other national income. Approximate procedures have been developed for computing risk adjustments in each of these special cases singly, but here, a more comprehensive procedure is described that encompasses both cases separately and jointly.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8489.1983.tb00428.x
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Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 27 (1983)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 231-239

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:27:y:1983:i:3:p:231-239
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  1. K.B. Hamal & Jock R. Anderson, 1982. "A Note On Decreasing Absolute Risk Aversion Among Farmers In Nepal," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 26(3), pages 220-225, December.
  2. Mayshar, Joram, 1979. "Should Government Subsidize Risky Private Projects? Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 462-64, June.
  3. Mayshar, Joram, 1977. "Should Government Subsidize Risky Private Projects?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 20-28, March.
  4. Anderson, Jock R., 1979. "Impacts of Climatic Variability in Australian Agriculture: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(03), December.
  5. Fisher, Anthony C., 1973. "A paradox in the theory of public investment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 405-407.
  6. Mishan, E J, 1972. "Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 161-64, March.
  7. Rees, Ray & Foldes, L. P., 1977. "A Note on the Arrow-Lind Theorem," Munich Reprints in Economics 3416, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  8. Pauly, Mark V, 1970. "Risk and the Social Rate of Discount," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 195-98, March.
  9. Wellington, Donald, 1972. "Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 170, March.
  10. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
  11. Gardner, Roy, 1979. "The Arrow-Lind Theorem in a Continuum Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 420-22, June.
  12. Nichols, Alan, 1972. "Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 168-69, March.
  13. James, Estelle, 1975. "A Note on Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(1), pages 200-05, March.
  14. Stewart, Marion B, 1979. "Should Government Subsidize Risky Private Projects? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 459-61, June.
  15. Sandmo, Agnar, 1972. "Discount Rates for Public Investment under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 13(2), pages 287-302, June.
  16. Makowski, Louis, 1983. "Competitive Stock Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 305-30, April.
  17. Anderson, Jock R., 1974. "Simulation: Methodology and Application in Agricultural Economics," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(01), March.
  18. McKean, Roland N & Moore, John H, 1972. "Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 165-67, March.
  19. Sanford J. Grossman & Robert J. Shiller, 1981. "Consumption Correlatedness and Risk Measurement in Economies with Non trade Assets and Heterogeneous Information," NBER Working Papers 0690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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