The Role of Economic and Weather Conditions in Farmer Suicide in the United States

Farmers commit suicide at high rates relative to the general population in the United States and elsewhere. Prior studies on farmer suicide have generally focused on socio‐demographic characteristics of individuals and on method of suicide, but few quantitative analyses have sought to understand the possible role of economic and climatic factors as determinants of suicide among farmers. This study addresses this void. We develop an economic model to show how poor economic outcomes or adverse weather conditions can reduce current‐period utility and diminish expectations of future utility through accumulation of debt and formation of expectations of future economic and climatic conditions, with suicide resulting in extreme cases. Our empirical analysis merges CDC nonpublic vital statistics, PRISM daily weather data, and USDA NASS crop and livestock price data into a county‐year panel to estimate the relationship between weather variables, economic factors, and farmer suicides. Results based upon a Poisson regression model show that long‐term, not transitory, poor economic conditions are associated with higher rates of farmer suicide. Extreme heat is also associated with increased farmer suicide, especially in counties most reliant upon animal agriculture. Precipitation appears to play little role in U.S. farmer suicide.