IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/agecon/v56y2025i6p895-904.html

Market Access Under a Dynamic Safeguard Mechanism: Evidence From the United States–Japan Trade Agreement

Author

Listed:
  • Anabeth Livingston
  • K. Aleks Schaefer
  • Trey Malone

Abstract

Access to the Japanese beef market has historically been highly restricted via import quotas and prohibitive tariffs. On January 1, 2020, the United States and Japan implemented the United States–Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA), which aimed to enhance market access by reducing tariffs on a variety of commodities, including beef and beef products. Less than 18 months after USJTA implementation, Japan re‐instituted high tariffs on U.S. beef after agreement safeguard levels were surpassed. In June 2022, USJTA safeguards were revised to rely on a three‐trigger mechanism. We nest a multitreatment‐period difference‐in‐difference design inside an econometric gravity model to investigate the impacts of these institutional regime changes on United States–Japan beef trade. We find that the USJTA substantially expanded access to the Japanese market for U.S. beef—even in light of the safeguard tariffs. In aggregate, the agreement generates an additional $210 million in annual exports for the U.S. beef industry. Even amidst changing attitudes towards the economic appeal of global market integration, incremental efforts to that end can have meaningful impacts for affected stakeholders.

Suggested Citation

  • Anabeth Livingston & K. Aleks Schaefer & Trey Malone, 2025. "Market Access Under a Dynamic Safeguard Mechanism: Evidence From the United States–Japan Trade Agreement," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 56(6), pages 895-904, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:56:y:2025:i:6:p:895-904
    DOI: 10.1111/agec.70039
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70039
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/agec.70039?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shashika D. Rathnayaka & Saroja Selvanathan & E. A. Selvanathan, 2021. "Demand for animal‐derived food in selected Asian countries: A system‐wide analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 97-122, January.
    2. Pascal L. Ghazalian & Lota D. Tamini & Bruno Larue & Jean-Philippe Gervais, 2012. "A gravity model to account for vertical linkages between markets with an application to the cattle/beef sector," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 579-601, June.
    3. Borcherding, Thomas E & Silberberg, Eugene, 1978. "Shipping the Good Apples Out: The Alchian and Allen Theorem Reconsidered," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 131-138, February.
    4. Tetsuji Tanaka & Jin Guo, 2024. "Is agricultural self-sufficiency effective to protect local markets from global markets? Empirical evidence from the beef sector in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(35), pages 4236-4250, July.
    5. Kathy Baylis & Jeffrey M. Perloff, 2010. "Trade diversion from tomato suspension agreements," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 127-151, February.
    6. Beckman, Jayson & Gale, Fred & Lee, Tani, 2021. "Agricultural Market Access Under Tariff-Rate Quotas," Economic Research Report 327203, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Jill J. McCluskey & Kristine M. Grimsrud & Hiromi Ouchi & Thomas I. Wahl, 2005. "Bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Japan: consumers' food safety perceptions and willingness to pay for tested beef," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), pages 197-209, June.
    8. Skully, David W., 2001. "Economics of Tariff-Rate Quota Administration," Technical Bulletins 184332, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    9. Colin A. Carter & Caroline Gunning‐Trant, 2010. "U.S. trade remedy law and agriculture: trade diversion and investigation effects," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 97-126, February.
    10. Kathy Baylis & Lia Nogueira & Linlin Fan & Kathryn Pace, 2022. "Something fishy in seafood trade? The relation between tariff and non‐tariff barriers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(5), pages 1656-1678, October.
    11. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    12. Andrew Muhammad, 2013. "Estimating import demand in the presence of seasonal trade and unobserved prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 446-451, March.
    13. Schaefer, K. Aleks & Wolf, Christopher A., 2025. "Trade protection via tariff rate quota administration," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    14. Schmitz Andrew & Seale James L. & Chegini Claudine, 2019. "Japanese Beef Tariffs: Beef Quality, Farm Programs, and Producer Compensation," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-15, November.
    15. Philip C. Abbott & Philip L. Paarlberg, 1998. "Tariff rate quotas: structural and stability impacts in growing markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 19(3), pages 257-267, December.
    16. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    17. Ning, Xin & Grant, Jason H. & Peterson, Everett B., 2021. "Estimating Structural Change in the Japanese Beef Import Market in the Wake of BSE: A Smooth Transition Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(01), January.
    18. Kym Anderson, 2023. "Agriculture's globalization: Endowments, technologies, tastes and policies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1314-1352, September.
    19. Skully, David W., 2001. "Economics Of Tariff-Rate Quota Administration," Technical Bulletins 33576, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    20. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Colin A. Carter & Tina L. Saitone & K. Aleks Schaefer, 2019. "Managed trade: The USMexico sugar suspension agreements," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1195-1222, August.
    2. Masahiro Kato & Akari Ohda, 2023. "Asymptotically Unbiased Synthetic Control Methods by Moment Matching," Papers 2307.11127, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    3. Cruz A. Echevarría & Serhat Hasancebi & Javier García-Enríquez, 2022. "Economic Effects of Macao’s Integration with Mainland China: A Causal Inference Study," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 179-215.
    4. Federico Crudu & Roberta Di Stefano & Giovanni Mellace & Silvia Tiezzi, 2022. "The Gray Zone," Department of Economics University of Siena 874, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    5. John Gibson & Xiaojin Sun, 2023. "A synthetic control analysis of U.S. state level COVID-19 stay-at-home orders on new jobless claims," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 1-14, March.
    6. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    7. Brett Parker, 2021. "Death Penalty Statutes and Murder Rates: Evidence From Synthetic Controls," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), pages 488-533, September.
    8. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2026. "Estimating Causal Effects With Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(2), pages 356-382, June.
    9. Chuku Chuku & Mustafa Yasin Yenice, 2021. "Working Paper 356 - Eurobonds, debt sustainability and macroeconomic performance in Africa: Synthetic controlled experiments," Working Paper Series 2482, African Development Bank.
    10. Sadeghi, Ali & Kibler, Ewald, 2022. "Do bankruptcy laws matter for entrepreneurship? A Synthetic Control Method analysis of a bankruptcy reform in Finland," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    11. S. V. Doroshenko & R. I. Vasileva & V. P. Litvinets, 2024. "The Far Eastern Development Program and Effectiveness for Regions: Case-Study Assessment," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 237-245, April.
    12. repec:osf:osfxxx:s8ayp_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bischoff, Ivo & Das, Sourav & Kosfeld, Reinhold, 2025. "Does inter-municipal cooperation reduce the intensity of tax competition? Evidence on inter-local industrial parks in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    14. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    15. Krapf, Matthias & Staubli, David, 2025. "Regional variations in corporate tax responsiveness: Evidence from Switzerland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    16. aus dem Moore, Nils & Brehm, Johannes & Gruhl, Henri, 2025. "Driving innovation? Carbon tax effects in the Swedish transport sector," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    17. Graham, Daniel J., 2025. "Causal inference for transport research," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    18. Zhentao Shi & Jin Xi & Haitian Xie, 2025. "A Synthetic Business Cycle Approach to Counterfactual Analysis with Nonstationary Macroeconomic Data," Papers 2505.22388, arXiv.org.
    19. Pavlik, Jamie Bologna & Jahan, Israt & Young, Andrew T., 2023. "Do longer constitutions corrupt?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Di, Wenhua & Pattison, Nathaniel, 2023. "Industry Specialization and Small Business Lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    21. Pekka Malo & Juha Eskelinen & Xun Zhou & Timo Kuosmanen, 2024. "Computing Synthetic Controls Using Bilevel Optimization," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 1113-1136, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:56:y:2025:i:6:p:895-904. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.